Economic Growth Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing and Crude Oil Exports in Nigeria

Background and Objective: This research delves into an examination of how Nigeria's non-export Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been influenced by the export activities in the agricultural, manufacturing and oil sectors during the timeframe spanning from 1962 to 2019. Given Nigeria's reliance on oil as a driving force for its economy, the primary goal is to analyse the enduring and immediate consequences of these export sectors on both non-export GDP and real GDP. Materials and Methods: Extensive data spanning from 1962 to 2019 were collected and analyzed. The study employs statistical techniques to assess the significance and direction of the impacts of agricultural, manufacturing and oil exports on economic indicators. The analysis also considers the correction of deviations from long-run equilibrium in the current period. Results: In the long run, the study finds that agricultural exports and exchange rates have statistically significant and positive impacts on the non-export GDP. In contrast, manufacturing exports exhibit a negative influence on both the non-export GDP and real GDP. Notably, oil exports are statistically significant, negatively affecting real GDP but having no significant impact on the non-export GDP. Additionally, the study reveals that previous period deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected at an adjustable speed of 4%. Conclusion: In the short run, the research demonstrates that a unit change in agricultural and manufacturing exports leads to a 0.02% decline and a 0.03% increase in economic growth, respectively. These findings underscore the importance of value addition in agricultural exports to enhance competitiveness and maximize returns.